Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 4.341518 5.083914 5.904478 6.877245 7.997476 9.245545 10.739877
2025-09-28 3.112209 4.086438 5.279573 6.841564 8.825124 11.251953 14.437320
2025-10-05 2.592455 3.740674 5.269826 7.438544 10.415454 14.335543 19.861507
2025-10-12 2.127231 3.331445 5.055347 7.673095 11.510221 16.882981 24.917250
2025-10-19 1.793158 3.019030 4.888836 7.901915 12.575526 19.471642 30.312716
2025-10-26 1.499407 2.698137 4.635639 7.930544 13.307852 21.621956 35.284268
2025-11-02 1.223534 2.345527 4.261152 7.687738 13.551116 23.017159 39.218932
2025-11-09 0.985985 2.008807 3.849134 7.302994 13.483017 23.872636 42.342946
2025-11-16 0.832172 1.793737 3.609436 7.170119 13.805170 25.375254 46.657475
2025-11-23 0.714643 1.625036 3.424295 7.101255 14.217282 27.054155 51.421406
2025-11-30 0.657661 1.568678 3.443679 7.417736 15.369075 30.144864 58.972372
2025-12-07 0.580233 1.452920 3.324297 7.439036 15.951005 32.243580 64.907817
2025-12-14 0.510399 1.343319 3.205783 7.456375 16.550291 34.481749 71.424571
2025-12-21 0.449074 1.241811 3.089270 7.462833 17.132699 36.759035 78.275439
2025-12-28 0.439591 1.266587 3.261005 8.127032 19.179773 42.148563 91.790374
2026-01-04 0.404751 1.218929 3.255797 8.387870 20.383546 45.942033 102.446431
2026-01-11 0.373093 1.173150 3.247337 8.638665 21.592732 49.862262 113.728895
2026-01-18 0.334129 1.098522 3.154243 8.670552 22.302729 52.784226 123.174387
2026-01-25 0.287218 0.990053 2.954884 8.406974 22.282810 54.105781 129.287500
2026-02-01 0.241060 0.872723 2.710589 7.988868 21.832355 54.410793 133.176622
2026-02-08 0.211271 0.800179 2.577500 7.844441 22.040052 56.234844 140.647134
2026-02-15 0.187565 0.742087 2.475637 7.769578 22.414203 58.481135 149.289360
2026-02-22 0.178734 0.733561 2.519960 8.113647 23.925501 63.587944 165.088833